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Focus on Big Tech spending plans
Chip stocks bounced back as investors returned to the AI trade, but the real challenge is only just beginning. With Alphabet and Tesla kicking off Big Tech earnings season, markets are shifting their focus from AI promises to AI profits. After committing hundreds of billions of dollars to data centres, chips and AI infrastructure, investors now want evidence that these massive investments are gene
Damned if you spend, damned if you don’t
Middle East tensions are once again shaking global markets, sending oil prices and bond yields sharply higher just as investors were hoping for a calmer second half of the year. Technology stocks are attempting a rebound, but higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation risks continue to challenge valuations. Meanwhile, Big Tech faces a dilemma: keep investing aggressively in artificial intelli
Chinese Moonshot AI unsettles US tech
China's latest AI breakthrough is sending a fresh shockwave through global markets. Chinese startup Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3, a model that is challenging the dominance of OpenAI and Anthropic on both performance and price, bringing the uncomfortable question of : could this be the beginning of a major repricing of the AI trade?
Listen to find out more!
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financ
Solana pushing for RWAs in Japan | Crypto Talk
Solana with a mega partnership in Japan to bring RWAs on chain
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Tech selloff deepens despite strong earnings
Chipmakers are delivering record profits, beating expectations and raising guidance—yet investors are selling first and asking questions later. TSMC's outstanding earnings failed to impress the market, Samsung, SK Hynix and Nvidia are all under pressure despite massive AI investments, telling that the next phase of the AI trade won’t be about AI demand but possible overheating, what it means for t
Rotation - where to?
We keep talking about a rotation out of technology—but is that really what's happening? While the biggest AI names, including memory chip makers, are facing profit-taking, capital isn't leaving the AI theme. Instead, it's rotating deeper into the AI ecosystem, benefiting semiconductor equipment makers, data-centre infrastructure providers, networking companies and even banks and industrials financ
Earnings season starts with a bang
Earnings season kicked off with a bang, US big banks printed record profit. On the data front, US inflation surprised to the downside in June, giving investors a reason to celebrate as Treasury yields fell and expectations for further Fed tightening eased. But the latest inflation relief could prove short-lived as falling energy prices did most of the heavy lifting, while escalating tensions in th
Rising oil prices spell trouble
Oil is back in charge of global markets. A renewed surge in crude prices has reignited inflation fears, pushed global bond yields higher and weighed heavily on equities, with Korean semiconductor stocks leading the selloff before weakness spread to Europe and the US. Even strong sales numbers from TSMC failed to lift sentiment, suggesting investors may now demand earnings that beat not only offici
Earnings vs. Geopolitics
This week's earnings season begins against a far more challenging backdrop than investors expected just days ago. While SK Hynix's record US debut highlights the market's relentless appetite for AI, the sharp swings in memory chip stocks are a reminder that semiconductor cycles have not disappeared. Attention now turns to major US banks, ASML and TSMC, where strong earnings are widely expected—but
SK Hynix land in New York
Oil prices surrendered this week's geopolitical gains as easing supply concerns and renewed US-Iran talks helped calm the energy markets despite continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Falling oil prices pushed global bond yields lower and lifted investor sentiment, setting the stage for a record US debut by SK Hynix.
Meanwhile, Chinese technology stocks continue to attract investors t
Oil back in the driver’s seat
The US resumed strikes on Iran, sanctions tightened again, Tehran threatened retaliation, and crude prices jumped back toward key technical levels. The rebound is reviving inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher and challenging the recent rotation away from energy.
Energy is benefiting from geopolitical tensions and renewed supply uncertainty, while Chinese technology stocks are attracting att
Hope for crypto and co? | Crypto Talk
Is this a sign of hope for the crypto markets?
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Middle East tensions flare up, again
Technology stocks remain under pressure despite Samsung's blockbuster earnings, with the semiconductor selloff dragging the Nasdaq 100 below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April. Meanwhile, SpaceX's first day in the Nasdaq 100 was marked by a sharp decline, even as Wall Street unveiled remarkably bullish price targets ranging from $200 to $300 per share—and one bank's valuation
Samsung down despite strong beat
Samsung's blockbuster earnings should have reassured investors. Instead, they triggered a 9% selloff that dragged the Kospi sharply lower and reignited concerns that expectations across the AI semiconductor space have become impossible to satisfy. A 19-fold jump in quarterly profit and an earnings beat were simply not enough once the market's whisper numbers had moved even higher.
At the same time
SpaceX to enter Nasdaq 100
European stocks are trading near fresh record highs, oil prices remain under pressure and AI enthusiasm continues to overshadow almost everything else. Yet beneath the surface, cracks are beginning to appear. Memory chip prices are squeezing hardware makers, Foxconn's blockbuster sales failed to excite investors, and SpaceX is about to join the Nasdaq 100 despite a valuation and governance structu
Weak US jobs boost investor optimism
Artificial intelligence has become the biggest engine of the market rally—but are the first cracks finally starting to appear: Meta's decision to commercialise its AI infrastructure and Oracle's warning that some customers may struggle to pay for the enormous computing capacity they have ordered have raised uncomfortable questions about whether the AI spending boom has gone too far. Chipmakers led
Bad news from Meta, Oracle
Artificial intelligence has become the biggest engine of the market rally—but are the first cracks finally starting to appear: Meta's decision to commercialise its AI infrastructure and Oracle's warning that some customers may struggle to pay for the enormous computing capacity they have ordered have raised uncomfortable questions about whether the AI spending boom has gone too far. Chipmakers led
H2 begins with bulls in charge
Global markets have entered the second half of the year with remarkable momentum despite months of geopolitical tensions, an energy shock and rising bond yields. AI remains the dominant investment theme, with semiconductor stocks continuing to lead the rally while Big Tech faces growing scrutiny over the returns on massive AI spending.
Falling oil prices are helping ease inflation fears just as Fe
BTC struggling with strength | Crypto Talk
BTC can barely hold 60k USD, is 50k next?
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Can chips rally without Big Tech?
Global stock markets have just wrapped up their strongest quarter in six years, but is the AI rally beginning to lose its foundations? While Nvidia, Micron and other chipmakers continue to surge, the companies funding the AI revolution are coming under growing pressure. Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon are all facing investor scrutiny over massive AI spending, rising borrowing costs and uncertai
Oil contained despite weekend’s Mid-East tensions
Markets are starting the week on a surprisingly calm footing despite another round of US-Iran attacks over the weekend. Oil prices remain remarkably contained, with strategic reserve releases and continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz helping contain fears of a major supply disruption. But while geopolitics has temporarily taken a back seat, investors are increasingly focusing on a different
From stocks to bonds
Technology stocks are under renewed pressure despite another blockbuster earnings report from Micron. While strong AI demand continues to lift memory chip makers, soaring chip prices are now creating problems for the companies that buy them. Apple warned that higher memory costs are forcing significant price increases, raising fears that consumer demand could weaken and profit margins could come u
Micron-backed sugar rush ahead of US data
Micron has given technology stocks exactly what they needed: a powerful earnings beat, strong guidance and renewed confidence that AI-driven demand for memory chips and data centres remains robust. The results triggered a rally across semiconductor stocks and lifted broader market sentiment after days of heavy selling.
But the real test is still ahead. Investors now turn their attention to the lat
All eyes on Micron earnings!
Technology stocks are under pressure as rising bond yields, elevated valuations and growing concerns over AI-related spending challenge one of the strongest market rallies in recent history.
The latest selloff has been particularly painful for memory-chip stocks, with Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix at the centre of the storm. After a spectacular AI-driven rally fuelled by booming demand for high-ban
Tech under pressure
Europe is catching a bid. Falling oil prices, easing inflation pressures and softer ECB expectations are improving the outlook for European equities just as cracks begin to appear in the technology trade. Concerns about excessive AI spending, rising debt issuance and stretched valuations are resurfacing, prompting investors to reassess whether the world's largest technology companies can generate
Odd peace optimism
Markets are starting the week with an odd sense of optimism despite another roller-coaster weekend for Middle East diplomacy. One moment the Strait of Hormuz is open, the next it's closed, then open again, as US-Iran negotiations begin while geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Yet investors continue to focus on the possibility of a breakthrough.
Oil briefly rose above $78 per barrel before retr
BTC in the swamp! | Crypto Talk
BTC is fighting the bears, but it seems hopeless - or is it?
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Oil cheapens but US dollar appreciates!
Oil prices are falling as the interim US-Iran agreement raises hopes that the worst of the Middle East disruption may be behind us. But the stronger dollar – on hawkish Fed policy - is offsetting part of the benefit from lower oil prices. Because commodities are priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes energy and raw material imports more expensive for the rest of the world. As a result, mark
How private equity stopped being a billionaires' club | Unlocked
🦄 The biggest tech winners now stay private for more than a decade. That's where most of the value gets created, and until recently it was off-limits to anyone who wasn't already a billionaire.
🎙️ In this episode of UNLOCKED, Andreas Bezner explains how he went from professional graffiti artist to building one of Switzerland's leading pre-IPO fintechs, why "the next NVIDIA" mistake is usually a p
Warsh’s Fed
Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair delivered a surprise—and not the dovish one markets were hoping for.
While the Fed left rates unchanged, the message was unmistakably hawkish. More importantly, Warsh appears determined to reshape the Federal Reserve itself. From questioning forward guidance and refusing to place a dot on the dot plot, to reviewing the Fed's communication strategy, balance
How high is too high?
SpaceX has surged to a valuation above $2.6 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world despite reporting losses and offering no clear profit outlook for this year. The rally is reigniting the bubble debate and raising questions about how far investors are willing to stretch valuations in the search for the next big thing.
At the same time, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces h
Risk of including a meme stock to major indices
Oil prices are falling, bond yields are easing and investors are rotating back into risk assets – including SpaceX. But beneath the optimism, a new question is emerging: what exactly is – and will be - inside your index?
SpaceX's surge to a $2.5 trillion valuation has reignited the debate around speculation, passive investing and index concentration. If included in the Nasdaq 100 today, the compan
Peace at last?
Could the 40th peace announcement finally be the one that sticks?
Markets are certainly acting as if it might. Reports that the US and Iran have reached an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply lower and boosted risk appetite across global markets. Lower energy prices could ease inflation pressures, soften central bank rhetoric, and provide fresh sup
The SpaceX Liftoff
It’s SpaceX Day.
Today marks the stock market debut of SpaceX in what has become the largest IPO in history, giving the company a valuation approaching $1.8 trillion and potentially making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
But while investors watch a rocket leave the launchpad, markets back on Earth remain hostage to Middle East headlines. Oil prices continue to swing on every comment rega
Count down to SpaceX IPO begins
Rising energy prices, hotter inflation and a tech-led market selloff may leave some space in the headlines to the upcoming SpaceX IPO, the largest in history. With a valuation approaching $1.8 trillion and demand reportedly more than four times oversubscribed, SpaceX is set to become one of the world's most valuable companies from day one.
But can the stock live up to the hype?
Will we see a massi
Focus on US CPI!
Middle East tensions are flaring up again, oil prices remain surprisingly contained below $90 per barrel, but risks remain tilted to the upside. Another rise in oil prices is a threat to global risk appetite at a time major central banks turn hawkish on rising inflation and investors question the parabolic tech rally.
So today’s US CPI report could become the next major market catalyst. Could inf
Dip-rushing
Technology stocks bounced back as investors once again rushed to buy the dip, brushing aside concerns about valuations, energy risks and signs of strain in the broader economy. The latest rebound suggests that the AI trade remains the dominant force in global markets, with every pullback viewed as another buying opportunity.
Meanwhile, hopes of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped ease oil p
Tech selloff: a blip or a valuation reset?
The AI trade may finally be showing its first real crack. After months of relentless gains, semiconductor and AI stocks came under heavy pressure as stronger-than-expected US jobs data pushed Treasury yields higher, raising questions about the sustainability of sky-high valuations. But rising yields are only part of the story. New reports suggest future AI infrastructure may require less DRAM memo
Middle East, US Jobs & SpaceX
Geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices, rising yields and private credit concerns weigh on some parts of the market, but the tech stocks continue to play in their own league.
Broadcom disappointment raised a few questions this week, and tech heavy indices are down today but a part of that is believed to be due to investors taking profits in existing tech positions to free up cash for next w
Bitcoin at critical support!
Oil trades a touch below the $100 per barrel. Inflation risks are rising again. Markets are pricing the possibility of Fed rate hikes instead of rate cuts and even tech stocks are not looking cheerful today.
While a day moodiness doesn’t mean a sharp correction, the red flags are piling up regarding the stretched tech valuations that defy economic reality.
And while the tech valuations stretch, Bi
The bears are back for bitcoin | Crypto Talk
After crisis times at Ethereum, the bears are back for Bitcoin!
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Gold is the King of Reserves
Markets continue to climb despite a growing list of reasons to be cautious. Oil prices are pushing higher, inflation remains sticky on both sides of the Atlantic, central banks are preparing for further tightening, and gold has now overtaken US Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks.
Yet investors seem focused on one thing only: AI.
A single comment from Nvidia's Jensen Huan
Ethereum in full crisis mode! | Crypto Talk
Ethereum is struggling due to many developers leaving the foundation and the price stagnating...
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Nvidia's new plan!
AI continues to dominate markets, pushing the S&P 500 to fresh record highs as investors rush to gain exposure to the next technological revolution. Nvidia's latest AI PC announcement highlights how quickly artificial intelligence is moving from data centres to everyday devices, potentially accelerating adoption across the economy.
But beneath the excitement, AI is no longer just a technology tren
How to invest in innovation without falling for the hype | Unlocked
🤖 Everyone wants to find "the next NVIDIA." But most investors had already moved on before NVIDIA itself had finished running.
🎙️ In this episode of UNLOCKED, Evelyne Pflugi explains why impatience destroys more returns than bad stock-picking, how Applied Innovation filters hype from real long-term value creation, and why the companies nobody discusses, photomask makers, energy infrastructure pla
This is Panic Buying
Global equities are charging to fresh highs, led by a handful of technology giants, even as inflation remains elevated, yields keep rising, oil hovers near uncomfortable levels and geopolitical tensions refuse to fade. From SoftBank to Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC and Micron, investors are piling into the AI trade with growing urgency. The most striking signal is South Korea’s volatility index surging
Is this a bubble?
Markets continue to climb to fresh record highs, but beneath the surface, warning signs are multiplying.
From narrowing market breadth and rising investor leverage to stretched valuations, the signs of excess are becoming harder to ignore. 7
So the million-dollar question keeps coming: is this a bubble?
Listen to find out more!
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the st
Stuck in Hormuz
Oil prices are rising again, inflation fears are back and the Strait of Hormuz is once again at the centre of global market tensions. Latest twists in US-Iran negotiations are reshaping inflation expectations, Fed rate bets, bond yields and risk appetite across financial markets.
But while the broader world economy appears increasingly “stuck in Hormuz,” tech stocks continue sailing through the st
Take a Breadth
Big Tech is still carrying global markets higher — but beneath the surface, the picture is becoming far less comfortable. In this episode, we explore the extraordinary rally in AI and semiconductor stocks, Micron’s explosive surge, narrowing market breadth, and why the latest gains in indices like the S&P 500 and Kospi may be masking growing fragilities underneath.
We also discuss the risks tied t
Markets swing on Iran news
Global markets are entering a dangerous phase where war, sticky inflation and rising debt are colliding at the same time. As the Middle East conflict drags on, oil prices remain a major threat to the inflation outlook just as global central banks are struggling to contain already elevated price pressures. Meanwhile, rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions and exposing the fragility
SpaceX, OpenAI Anthropic: to the Mars?
The next IPO wave could become one of the biggest speculative moments in market history. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are attracting enormous investor excitement as AI and space infrastructure reshape the future economy. But behind the breathtaking valuations lies a much more fragile reality: these companies are burning billions of dollars while betting on technologies that may take years — or dec
Pricing Mars
Markets keep climbing as if nothing can go wrong. While oil prices remain volatile, global yields surge, economic data weakens and recession risks build beneath the surface, investors are once again chasing the AI dream. Reports that SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing massive IPOs have reignited the speculative frenzy, even as market breadth deteriorates and companies outside tech struggle
Let's get Physical AI!
Nvidia once again crushed expectations, but this time the biggest gains spilled far beyond Nvidia itself. From Samsung to LG Electronics and Hyundai Mobis, investors are increasingly betting that the next phase of AI will move beyond data centres and into the real economy through robotics, autonomous driving and “physical AI.”
But beneath the AI euphoria, the macro backdrop is becoming increasingl
Nvidia Day!
Geopolitical uncertainties persist, energy prices remain high, global yields rise. Market focus has been shifting from strong Big Tech earnings to rising borrowing costs.
It’s in this challenging context that Nvidia goes to the earning confessional today, so even strong results may not reverse the tide.
Listen to full episode to find out more!
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career i
Reverse Carry Risks Are Back!
Japan’s bond yields are rising to levels that were unthinkable just a few years ago, and markets are starting to ask whether the next reverse carry trade is already building beneath the surface.
As the Bank of Japan slowly exits decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, higher Japanese yields could encourage investors to bring money home, reducing demand for US Treasuries and tightening global liqui
Global yields surge, markets under pressure!
Global yields are soaring as rising inflation due to oil prices force investors to rethink the outlook for central bank policy. While European central bank expectations were already pointing at the possibility of summer rate hikes, the Fed funds futures have now started pricing more than a 50% chance of a December rate hike — a stunning reversal from expectations for multiple cuts earlier this yea
Yield Blind
Markets are ending the week in full euphoria mode. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs as investors continue piling into AI stocks despite rising inflation, surging bond yields and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel, Japanese yields pushed far beyond levels once considered dangerous for global carry trades, and US consumers
From petro-dollar to tech-yuan
As the world slowly decreases exposure to the US dollar and Treasuries, the concept of the “petro-yuan” is gaining momentum, referring to the growing use of China’s currency in oil and other goods trade.
In this episode, we dive into how to build exposure to a rising China, the challenges and the opportunities.
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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in
Solana back on top? | Crypto Talk
Solana is gaining steam again amongst the bigger investors, will it be back on top this summer?
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Borrowed stability
US inflation came in hotter than expected, oil prices are back above $100 per barrel, global oil inventories are falling at record speed, and the Middle East war continues to threaten one of the world’s most critical oil routes: the Strait of Hormuz. Bond yields are rising again, rate cuts are fading further into the distance, and consumers are increasingly relying on debt to keep spending alive.
Record high delusion?
Markets keep climbing despite rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions and growing inflation risks. The S&P500 and Nasdaq pushed to fresh record highs as stronger-than-expected earnings — especially from AI and energy companies — helped investors look through the Middle East turmoil and higher energy costs. But beneath the surface, the rally is becoming increasingly narrow, with tech and semicondu
A dangerously ignored reality?
AI investors now brush aside worsening geopolitical headlines. Despite fading peace hopes in the Middle East, rising oil prices and renewed inflation fears, tech-heavy indices trade to record highs, driven once again by semiconductor and AI-linked stocks. The divergence between tech and the rest of the market is becoming increasingly extreme, with investors seemingly willing to ignore slowing grow
Attention turns to US jobs data as geopolitical headlines flip... again
Markets are ending the week on another geopolitical twist as renewed Middle East tensions can’t come to an end!
Meanwhile, all eyes now turn to the US jobs report. While employment data remains important, investors are increasingly watching wage growth and inflation signals as central banks grow more concerned about price pressures than slowing labour markets.
Can strong jobs and softer wages keep
Too much optimism?
Markets erupted in euphoria after headlines suggested that a potential US-Iran peace proposal could help de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices plunged from recent highs, the US dollar weakened, yields dropped and equity markets surged to fresh records, with AI and semiconductor stocks once again leading the rally.
But is the market getting ahead of itself?
Listen to find out more!
Too much optimism?
Markets erupted in euphoria after headlines suggested that a potential US-Iran peace proposal could help de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices plunged from recent highs, the US dollar weakened, yields dropped and equity markets surged to fresh records, with AI and semiconductor stocks once again leading the rally.
But is the market getting ahead of itself?
Listen to find out more!
BTC over 80'000 USD | Crypto Talk
Bitcoin is slowly creeping up to 80'000 USD, how long will it stay there?
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Chip stocks push tech heavy indices to fresh ATHs!
AI optimism is once again overpowering geopolitical fears. Markets continue to flip-flop between Middle East headlines and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, but investors remain focused on strong tech earnings, booming AI infrastructure spending and resilient equity momentum.
The S&P500, Nasdaq100 and Kospi are at ATH levels thanks to semiconductor stocks, amid strong earnings reaction. E
Narrative flips from AI to Middle East, but Tech hasn’t said its last word
Oil volatility, rising yields and geopolitical tensions are back in focus — and markets are feeling it. A fresh escalation in the Middle East sent crude prices surging before easing slightly, reminding investors how quickly sentiment can flip from optimism to risk-off. As oil pushes higher, the narrative shifts from supply concerns to demand destruction, with inflation fears and hawkish central ba
Ethereum war proof? | Crypto Talk
Is Ethereum the better war-proof investment than BTC? How is Solana planning on becoming quantum-resistant?
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AI rally extends on resilient tech earnings
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil markets tight, with no clear resolution in sight. Despite this, global equities continue to show resilience. Central banks are holding rates steady, but the tone is shifting — particularly in Europe, where inflation concerns persist even as growth weakens.
At the same time, AI optimism continues to dominate
Resilient earnings tame macroeconomic worries
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil markets tight, with no clear resolution in sight. Despite this, global equities continue to show resilience. Central banks are holding rates steady, but the tone is shifting — particularly in Europe, where inflation concerns persist even as growth weakens.
At the same time, AI optimism continues to dominate
Big Tech delivers... but oil steals the show
Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet posted strong earnings, with cloud growth confirming that the AI boom is translating into real revenue. From Amazon’s fastest cloud expansion in years to Microsoft’s 39% Azure growth, the AI trade looks alive and well.
At the same time, oil prices are surging above $113, shaking the macro outlook. Rising energy costs are pushing inflation expectations higher and comp
UAE leaves OPEC, OpenAI misses targets
Two major headlines hit markets yesterday: a report that OpenAI may be missing internal revenue and user growth targets, and the United Arab Emirates are stepping away from OPEC. Nasdaq 100 fell 1%, as oil prices rallied on near-term supply concerns, even as longer-dated contracts signalled a more cautious medium-term outlook. Later today, investors will focus on the Fed decision and Big Tech ear
Big Tech priced to perfection into earnings
With no progress on Middle East peace talks, rising tensions are pushing energy prices higher, complicating the outlook for inflation, central banks and global growth. The BoJ leaved rates unchanged but revised growth projections lower and inflation forecast higher. The Fed may be on hold for longer, as well. while policymakers face a tough trade-off: rising prices and slowing economies.
At the sa
Earnings & central bank decisions ahead!
Markets are kicking off the week in a risk-on mood — but is it built to last?
Renewed peace hopes in the Middle East are helping ease geopolitical tensions, pulling energy prices slightly lower and boosting equities across Asia, the US and Europe. At the same time, earnings season is delivering: a strong majority of companies are beating expectations, keeping the bullish momentum alive.
Beneath th
Bitcoin finally breaking out | Crypto Talk
Bitcoin is finally showing us some strength!
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Chips love AI, software suffers
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as markets navigate fragile ceasefire dynamics, rising oil prices, and persistent inflation pressures. Brent crude is consolidating near the $100 per barrel level, keeping global yields elevated and reinforcing concerns about the inflation outlook. At the same time, macro data is beginning to reflect the strain, with European activity—particularly in services—
What war?
Major US indices hit fresh record highs yesterday but the contrast between market prices and fundamentals is striking. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, energy markets are volatile and macro data is starting to show strain. Yet risk assets continue to climb, driven less by the physical economy and more by narrative momentum—especially around AI and long-term productivity gains.
The growing ga
Mixed reaction to extended Middle East ceasefire
Markets are navigating a fragile calm. The Middle East ceasefire extension isn’t enough to anchor sentiment, as oil volatility persists and uncertainty around supply dynamics lingers. Yet, despite rising energy prices, the US consumer refuses to crack—fueling higher yields and pushing back rate cut expectations.
Across assets, conviction is thin: equities are mixed, the dollar is losing momentum,
Oil out, Tech in
Oil spikes, then pulls back. Markets sell off, then bounce. Is this the same pattern all over again?
This week kicked off with renewed Middle East tensions shaking sentiment, but the real story may lie beneath the surface. Despite supply risks and ongoing disruptions, oil prices are struggling to hold their gains — pointing to something deeper: demand destruction may already be kicking in.
Meanwhi
