Moving Markets
Moving Markets is the podcast channel of Julius Baer, a Swiss bank. It features 'Moving Markets Daily' with concise daily market updates and 'Moving Markets: The View Beyond', a weekly show discussing key topics shaping the news cycle and investment implications. The content is aimed at relationship managers and clients, providing expert insights on financial markets.
Folgen
A hawkish ECB and 10-year US Treasury yield near 5%
US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microso
Oil surges, yields spike and central banks take centre stage
Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have
Oil rally fuels inflation concerns
Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing inflation back into focus ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases later this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada intensified, while political uncertainty in Europe remained elevated following German state elections and continued debate over France’s fiscal outlook. In today’s show, Norbert Rücker, He
Oil up, JPY up, gold buying, and the wild ride in digital assets
Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, and the result of Sunday's German state elections is weighing on sentiment in Europe. China bought the most gold in a month since 2023, and the Japanese yen is up to its strongest since February. Robust Chinese export growth comes ahead of ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit to the US this month. Carsten M
Markets digest data and tech news
Equity markets reacted to the August US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which surprised to the upside, leading traders to believe that a hike is now more likely from the Fed on 16 September. Treasury yields moved higher, and the Dow and the S&P 500 closed the day lower. The Nasdaq 100 however closed above the flatline on Friday as tech stocks received a boost from OpenAI. This optim
The View Beyond: Japan’s structural revival takes centre stage
Strong earnings, improving shareholder returns, corporate reforms, and continued AI-related demand have reinforced the case for Japanese equities. But with a stronger yen and policy normalisation underway, can Japan's momentum continue? In this episode, Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Investment Specialists at Julius Baer, speaks with Louis Chua, Equity Research Analyst Asia, about the latest earn
Fed Governor Waller eases rate hike fears
Markets received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data in Switzerland and resilient activity across the eurozone. In the US, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped push Treasury yields lower and supported risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to their highest levels in weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In today’s show, Tim
Yields pause, markets find their footing, Yen gains, gold rises
Equity markets found their footing as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent rise, while US economic data and Fed commentary reinforced a resilient growth outlook. The Fed's Beige Book pointed to continued expansion, albeit with persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on sentiment in Europe, while the yen strengthened on expect
Global bond yields climb ever higher
Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in Septe
Oil jumps and yields rise on renewed Middle East tensions
Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will
Rate hike expectations rise after Warsh’s speech at Jackson hole
Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief
The View Beyond: Why the short end looks sweet
With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards?In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video a
The NVIDIA rally yesterday and Kevin Warsh's speech today
NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid gro
NVIDIA delivers fuelling the AI trade
Markets traded largely sideways ahead of the earnings release from NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation. After the US market close, the company once again exceeded expectations, delivering stronger-than-anticipated guidance and sending its shares more than 4% higher in after-hours trading. Elsewhere, US inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, prompti
Falling oil prices calm markets ahead of inflation test
Markets found their footing yesterday despite an intensification of US sanctions on Iran, as traders focused on the shift towards economic rather than military pressure and the resulting decline in oil prices. Equity markets generally moved higher, led by gains in technology shares, while Germany’s stronger-than-expected economic growth figures added to the constructive backdrop. Attentio
Equities pause for breath ahead of Big Tech earnings
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended Monday's trading session lower as chip stocks faltered, while the Dow Jones gained 0.25% on the day. It was a similar story in Asia this morning as investors digested the potential ramifications of 'Operation Economic Outcast', while awaiting not only Nvidia's and Marvell Technology's results and US PCE data tomorrow, but also a highly a
US inflation data, Nvidia, and Jackson Hole will shape the week ahead
Stronger-than-expected US PMI data could not save equities from a down week as rising bond yields and the Treasury's bond-buying intervention renewed dollar debasement fears, fuelling a blistering rally in gold and Bitcoin. Trade tensions returned as US-Canada talks collapsed over the weekend, and investors brace for a pivotal week featuring NVIDIA earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson H
The View Beyond: Strong Q2 earnings season supports broader equity story
The Q2 earnings season delivered a strong set of results, with positive surprises across sectors and regions. As investors look ahead to the remainder of the year, the broadening of earnings growth and market participation is creating opportunities beyond the dominant AI and technology themes.In this episode, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer a
Stocks dip as oil and bond yields rise
Markets largely dipped yesterday as geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and disappointing guidance from Walmart weighed on investor sentiment. After yields fell on Wednesday following the announcement from the US Treasury of doubling buybacks of longer-term debt, yesterday they resumed their upward trend, even after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested further increases to the buybac
Fed Minutes trumped by US Treasury announcement
The US Treasury provided a boost to bond and equity markets yesterday, announcing that it will more than double repurchases of 10, 20, and 30-year debt in the next few months. This saw the long bond yield fall 10 bps from its 19-year high on Tuesday, to 5.184%. Gold had its best day since March. US stock markets also closed up on the day with Moderna and Merck providing a boost. Asian equ
Bonds in freefall, tech in trouble
A global bond sell-off sent yields to multi-year highs, dragging equities lower as tech stocks bore the brunt amid persistent inflation concerns. Yet Bank of America's fund manager survey reveals remarkably bullish positioning, with investors reducing cash and piling into equities on hopes of a soft landing and faith in the AI boom. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his v
Rising US Treasury yields and Anthropic’s momentum
Higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed on equity markets, pushing global stocks lower at the start of the week. US Treasury yields remained in focus as strong corporate bond issuance added to concerns over US fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence remained a standout theme, with Anthropic's rapid growth boosting sentiment across the sector. Enrico Chinello, Next Gen
Yields rise, oil surges and Japan leads the markets
Global market performance was mixed last week, with Japanese equities emerging as the standout winner, driven by strong gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, oil prices surged around 6% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, and longer-term government bond yields moved higher despite softer-than-expected signals from US inflation and consumer data. In this episode, we are
The View Beyond: Has the AI correction bottomed out?
With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape?Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CI
Stocks at highs, bonds reprice and the bear case for oil
US equities continued their upward climb this week, supported by a series of encouraging inflation releases, while European stocks have taken a breather after hitting record highs earlier in the week. In fixed income markets, government bond yields moved lower as investors scaled back expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Joining us today is Norbert Rücker, Head of Economi
Tech stocks rally as inflation cools
The latest US inflation data came in in line with expectations and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both finished the day in positive territory yesterday, with technology stocks leading the gains. Earlier in Europe, equities eased as investors balanced earnings releases with ongoi
Oil climbs ahead of key US inflation data
Markets struggled for direction yesterday, with investors balancing geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and a busy corporate news flow. US equities fell for a second straight session as technology shares came under pressure, while European stocks consolidated near record highs and Asian markets traded mixed overnight. With markets searching for direction, the spotlight now shifts to
Funding the AI revolution and a resilient eurozone
Eurozone growth expectations have improved, supported by a strong earnings season. Oil prices rose on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions, while OPEC output recovered in July. AI investment remained in focus, with Intel raising capital, Nvidia securing funding for AI infrastructure, and regulatory changes supporting additional financing channels. However, this did not support the Nasdaq, wh
Berkshire Hathaway back in action as equity markets reach new all-time highs
Markets are starting the week on a strong footing. Softer US jobs data, falling bond yields, robust corporate earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's return to share buybacks have fuelled optimism among investors. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses what the latest signals mean for equities, the US dollar, gold, and silver, and why he believes key market trends still have roo
The View Beyond: Why Asia needs its own hedge fund playbook
Amid rising market volatility and a shift beyond the dominant AI-driven rally, investor interest is turning to hedge funds. In this episode, we examine the appeal of market-neutral, Asia-focused multi-manager hedge funds and how institutional investors are incorporating them into diversified portfolios to pursue resilient outcomes. William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists for Asia a
AI, biotech and safe havens in focus
Three themes dominated markets yesterday: earnings, AI and macro risks. Strong results boosted stocks such as Deutsche Telekom and Diageo, while disappointments weighed on several industrial and technology names. AI remained a key driver, supporting China's trade data and attracting strong demand for Alphabet's USD 25 billion bond offering. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions lifted oil price
Dow hits new high as markets continue to watch the Middle East
With changing sentiment around Middle East tensions and a busy earnings season driving market moves, the Dow Jones recorded its fifth consecutive gain yesterday and a third straight record close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both slipped, with the latter weighted down by declines in SpaceX and AMD, while European equities reached a fresh all-time high. Dario Messi, Head of Fi
Record highs, AI fever and SpaceX's surprise earnings
Stocks are breaking records as investors double down on the AI trade. Strong earnings across sectors, easing geopolitical concerns and renewed risk appetite have pushed markets higher, but SpaceX's latest results reveal the growing price tag of the AI revolution. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides more details on the ongoing earnings season, the rotation shaping markets,
Markets cheer lower oil prices, while AI investments remains in focus
Markets were supported by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply lower and easing inflation concerns. Investors also digested a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention by Japan and the United States, while strong US manufacturing data pointed to continued resilience in the industrial sector. Equities advanced on both sides of the Atlantic, with the Dow Jone
Geopolitical tensions ease, oil slumps, yen jumps
After a volatile week, global markets are starting the new trading session on a stronger footing. Investor sentiment improved overnight following reports that renewed US-Iran talks aimed at easing Middle East tensions could begin as early as today, sending oil prices down more than 5%. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is emerging as one of the day's standout performers, extending its gains aga
The View Beyond: Reading rates without a map as the Fed, BoE and BoJ hold
In just one week, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all chose to hold interest rates steady, yet none of the decisions were unanimous, and of course, the Fed's new Chair is now steering away from forward guidance altogether. With investors left to navigate rates without the usual signposts, what should they make of this week's decisions, and what comes next
Ending the week on a high?
US stocks staged a rally yesterday following Wednesday’s post-Fed sell-off. Microsoft and semiconductors definitely helped to drive the gains. And the pattern continued in Asia this morning with South Korea’s Kospi up 18% in its session. Central banks in the UK and Japan cemented a week of no moves – although their messaging about the future path of rates diverged. Tim Gagie, Head of FX A
A split Fed, a steeper yield curve and Microsoft delivering
Markets reacted sharply after a divided US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday. The decision triggered a notable steepening of the Treasury yield curve, with 2-year yields edging lower while 30-year yields moved materially higher. US equities also came under pressure, with major stock indices posting significant declines. However, sentiment improved after the
AI jitters, Big Tech earnings & the Fed decision
A sharp market rotation took centre stage on Tuesday as investors moved out of chipmakers and into healthcare and financial stocks, pushing both sectors to fresh record highs. Even blockbuster results from AI memory leader SK Hynix failed to ease concerns, extending the sell-off in semiconductor stocks ahead of a crucial week for Big Tech earnings. With the Federal Reserve set to announce
Oil retreats as markets face a critical week ahead
Markets are starting the week on a firmer footing as a pause in Middle East hostilities pushes oil prices lower and eases inflation concerns. The move follows a cautious week for investors, with concerns about AI spending, rising bond yields and escalating geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment. Most major US equity indices ended the week lower, while European equities proved relativ
The View Beyond: Implications of a warmer world
As Europe faces increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves, the implications extend far beyond discomfort. The rising temperatures are creating urgent challenges with regard to public health, economic resilience, and urban infrastructure. What does a warmer world mean for the way we live, work, and invest?In this episode, Helen Freer is joined by Dr. Damien Ng, an analyst in Julius Baer’s
Markets on edge: rising oil, higher yields and the AI spending debate
Global equities traded lower as oil prices surged in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, while renewed concerns over AI-related capital expenditure weighed on investor sentiment. Although the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, expectations of further policy tightening later this year have strengthened, pushing bond yields higher across major markets. In t
Oil prices rise on escalating geopolitical tensions
Oil prices continue to surge as tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about global energy supplies and economic growth. There were knock-on effects in bond markets with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to a two-month high. Alphabet and Tesla were the first of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report earnings after the bell yesterday – both stocks fell in extended trading. At the E
Geopolitics lifts oil, tariffs return, and markets look to earnings
Markets faced a fresh wave of geopolitical risk as the conflict involving the US, Iran and the Houthis escalated, pushing oil prices higher. Yet equities remained resilient, with positive corporate earnings and strength in semiconductors helping offset investor concerns. Elsewhere, the US announced a 50% tariff on a broad range of Canadian imports, Japan's yen weakened beyond 163 against
Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma
Burnham's debut, bond market jitters and the future of AI in BioPharma Markets were relatively quiet yesterday, but developments in the UK drew investor attention. Prime Minister Andy Burnham's policy announcements sparked concerns over the fiscal outlook, sending gilt yields higher, while John Healey's appointment as Chancellor raised fresh questions about economic policy. Meanwhile, sem
Chip stocks enter bear market: healthy consolidation or change in trend?
Semiconductor stocks have plunged more than 20% from their recent highs, officially entering bear market territory after China’s Moonshot launched its Kimi K3 model sparking fears of intensifying global competition. Amid rising concerns over stretched valuations, geopolitical risks, and a critical earnings week ahead – including reports from Alphabet, SK Hynix, and Tesla – markets stand a
The View Beyond: China after the AI correction
After a sharp correction in AI-related stocks across Asia, investors are reassessing one of the market's strongest themes of the past year. In China, many AI and semiconductor-related names have fallen significantly from their recent highs, prompting debate over whether the pullback is creating a buying opportunity or signalling a more prolonged period of volatility. In this episode, Rich
Markets under pressure: gold, sterling and the search for safety
Equity markets weakened as continued losses in semiconductor stocks and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on risk sentiment, pushing major indices firmly into negative territory. At the same time, recent economic data highlighted the resilience of the US economy, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Meanwhile, Netflix shares came under pressure in after-hour
Earnings strength versus AI volatility and commodity jitters
The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to addr
Cooler US inflation data boosts markets
Yesterday’s release of June CPI inflation data in the US provided a welcome boost to US equity and Treasury prices, as traders drastically lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in July. The mood was further bolstered by Q2 earnings from Wall Street’s big five banks. The buoyant mood continued in Asia this morning, especially in tech, with the Kospi rallying over 7% at one point. We had tw
Oil jumps, yields rise and US banks kick off earnings
Oil prices surged after fresh tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies, while higher inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on equity markets, where semiconductor stocks led the declines. Investors are now turning their attention to the start of the US earnings season, with major banks reporting results today. Elsewhere, China’s tra
US-Iran escalation shakes markets ahead of earnings
Markets are feeling the pressure this Monday morning as rising US-Iran tensions fuel higher oil prices, bond yields and the dollar, while equities drift lower. But with earnings season now taking centre stage, investors are asking a bigger question: can AI leaders and chipmakers justify their stellar gains from the first half of the year? Also in this episode: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Tech
The View Beyond: What does the political reset in the UK mean for sterling and UK bonds?
With the UK preparing for a new phase of political leadership under the Labour Party's Andy Burnham, investors are watching closely for signals that could impact sterling and UK bonds. Despite headline changes at the top, market volatility has remained subdued. What’s behind the calm, and what should investors expect next?In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, A
Peace talk hopes boost global stocks
As peace talks could be back on the table in the Middle East, global equity markets breathed a sigh of relief and investors snapped up tech stocks around the world. The Kospi retreated from bear market territory rallying more than 5%. And Japanese bonds, equities and the currency were boosted by comments from the country’s finance minister that the government wants to encourage its pensio
Oil shock or short detour? Markets react to Middle East tensions
Market sentiment has weakened as renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices and government bond yields higher. Spain’s benchmark equity index has come under additional pressure following President Trump’s threat to impose trade restrictions on the country. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, joins us to discuss the latest surge in o
Semi sell-off and US-Iran escalation test market resilience
Sharp semiconductor losses amid AI chip rivalry fears contrast with resilient broader markets, while escalating US-Iran tensions send oil surging 5%, highlighting growing jitters over geopolitics and inflation just as central banks signal rates may stay higher for longer. Investors will now focus on the upcoming earnings season for more guidance. Matthieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
AI stocks lift Wall Street
US equities started the week strongly as AI-related stocks rebounded yesterday and the Dow Jones closed above 53,000 for the first time. Broadcom gained after extending its partnership with Apple, while Microsoft slipped following plans to cut jobs as it reallocates resources towards AI infrastructure. In Europe, most indices were down, although Germany’s DAX bucked the trend and reached
It looks like 1998, rather than 2000
Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US
The View Beyond: Will the 4th of July party continue for US markets?
As the United States marks 250 years of independence, investors are asking whether its markets can continue to deliver long-term outperformance in the face of elevated valuations and global competition. What are America’s enduring structural advantages, and could we be entering a new investment era?In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Mark Matthews, Head of
Weak US jobs data and AI chip news shakes tech
US job growth slowed significantly in June, giving support to our economists’ view that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again this year. This pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, while supporting gold and most equities. US technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply after reports that Anthropic is looking into developing its own AI chip together with Samsung
Copper, chips and jobs: markets kick off the third quarter
Equity markets began the third quarter on a slightly subdued note, with semiconductor stocks coming under particular pressure. In contrast, Meta emerged as one of the standout performers yesterday, with its shares rallying on reports that the company is actively developing a cloud business aimed at selling AI computing power. Fixed income markets remained relatively calm as investors awai
Winners and losers of Q2 2026
Markets closed a volatile quarter with sharply lower oil and gold prices, while AI optimism continued to support equities on both sides of the Atlantic. European stocks posted their strongest quarter in over five years, and US markets remained resilient despite weakness in the ‘Magnificent Seven’. In today’s show, we also discuss easing eurozone inflation, strong US labour market data and
Prospective peace talks in Doha soothe markets
After tensions rose again in the Middle East over the weekend, news yesterday that US envoys will travel to Doha for fresh talks with Iran today allowed markets room to rally. The Dow Jones, which now includes Alphabet, ended yesterday’s session above 52,000 for the first time. Asia continued the rally overnight with the Kospi set to exceed a 105% year-to-date performance by the end of it
US-Iran de-escalation and South Korea’s USD 1.3 trillion spending plan
US-Iran tensions eased over the weekend, supporting risk sentiment going into the new week. However, Asian markets are mixed despite South Korea's pledge of major semiconductor investment, as tech sector concerns temper enthusiasm. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the change in the technical picture of the US dollar, why they do not expect the S&P 500 to fal
The View Beyond: An investor's perspective of the mid-year outlook 2026
With 2026 at its midpoint, investors are navigating an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and shifting growth dynamics across major economies. How are asset allocators responding, and what does this mean for portfolio construction in the months ahead?In this episode of The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Yves Klenk,
Sticky inflation meets tech weakness
There was a mixed picture in financial markets yesterday as persistent US inflation continues to test the Federal Reserve’s patience. European equities climbed to fresh record highs, boosted by healthcare and chip stocks, while US markets diverged, with tech weakness weighing on the Nasdaq. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets came under pressure, led by sharp declines in Japan and South Korea
Micron's guidance boosts markets
Not only did Micron’s fiscal Q3 earnings exceed expectations yesterday, but the company also guided for current-quarter revenue of USD 50 billion, positively surprising analysts and investors and boosting its share price by 16%. The euphoria around the announcement spilled over into other chip names, and Asia’s markets, excluding Hong Kong, all rallied overnight. Oil prices and bond yield
Markets wobble: Is the AI rally running out of steam?
Equity markets are facing renewed pressure as investors question whether AI-driven stocks, particularly semiconductors, can sustain their remarkable rally. All eyes are on Micron, set to report earnings after today’s close in New York, for clues on the sector’s next move. At the same time, the broader economic backdrop remains supportive, with US business activity expanding at its fastest
Tech sell-off drowns out US–Iran oil news
Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn’t need to reac
US and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal
Progress in US–Iran talks in Switzerland helped ease geopolitical concerns. And while positive momentum in Asian tech lifted regional markets, European and US equity futures have started the week on a more cautious footing. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at the current trend in the S&P 500, shares his view on the ‘Magnificent Seven’, and outlines which
The View Beyond: China’s old and new tech divide
Against a shifting macro backdrop, markets are responding to easing geopolitical tensions following a US-Iran peace deal, with oil prices falling sharply and Asian equities rallying. Within China, however, a stark divergence persists: Hong Kong’s “old tech” sector has lagged, while mainland “new tech,” particularly AI infrastructure, continues to attract strong inflows and outperform. In
A week dominated by geopolitics and central banks
Global markets have been driven this week by a US–Iran deal, a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh, and a Bank of Japan rate hike to multi-decade highs. Markets are now pricing in further US policy tightening, with record Treasury futures volumes signalling strong expectations for rate rises. Equities were mixed yesterday, with early weakness offset by gains in semiconductor stocks. Centra
Hawkish Fed, calmer world? Markets reprice as geopolitics shift
European equities extended their upward momentum, while US markets faced selling pressure after the first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish tone, pushing Treasury yields higher. Yet, sentiment later shifted again as news of a signed memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran lifted Asian markets and drove US equity futures firmly into positive
SpaceX overtakes Amazon in market cap
SpaceX moves beyond rockets with its acquisition of AI firm Anysphere, igniting investor excitement and propelling the company to become the world’s fifth-most valuable after its blockbuster IPO. As technology and geopolitics continue to reshape markets, attention now turns to today’s FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Re
Markets rally on Iran progress as AI price war heats up
Markets rallied strongly yesterday as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran lifted risk sentiment, with European equities reaching fresh record highs and US indices surging across the board. Optimism was driven by a framework agreement pointing towards a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains around the timeline and terms. Oil prices fell sh
Markets surge as Iran and US agree to a deal
Yesterday, the US and Iran agreed to the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The deal is set to be signed on Friday and still allows for a 60-day window to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program. Evidently some details are still to be ironed out, but equity and bond markets have reacted positively, with Asia trading highe
The View Beyond: Our mid-year outlook for markets
As global markets adjust to a world where capital is no longer abundant, investors face new challenges and opportunities. How should they adapt their portfolios, and what are the most compelling prospects for the second half of 2026? Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, join Bernadette Anderko to discuss Julius Baer’s mid-year mark
Middle East developments and SpaceX debut captivate markets
President Trump halted strikes on Iran yesterday and announced that a peace deal will be signed imminently. Markets reacted accordingly, with oil prices falling and equities rallying. Chip stocks contributed to the rally in both the US and Asia overnight. Even US Treasuries held on to their gains, as markets lowered their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from 51% to 36%. SpaceX raised U
Markets under pressure: gold, rates, and rising tensions
While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, He
Fragile ceasefire meets IPO revival
Markets saw a cautious session yesterday, as investors remained on edge amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty, with both European and US equities ending broadly lower. Overnight, tensions escalated sharply, with US strikes on Iran followed by retaliatory actions across the Gulf, placing further strain on an already fragile ceasefire. Despite these developments, oil prices remained relative
